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kimchiman
Rated R
Joined: 02 Oct 2007
Posts: 60
Location: New Jersey
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 Posted: Fri, 23 Nov 2007 00:13:00 Post Subject: |
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That is exactly how the over/under works. The odds makers add 1/2 a point because they make money from people winning and losing bets, not from ties. 1/2 a point makes ties impossible. The other thing to consider is that some scores appear more often than others. Multiples of 7, +3 are most common. So better to pick a team to score 10 points than 11 points. The other thing to consider is the weather. Bad rain or snow will usually lower the total amount of scoring, as will a blowout where one team tries to run out the clock and rest it's best players. On the other hand, teams like New England try to run up the score.
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Little Bruin
Boo Boo
Joined: 07 Apr 2003
Posts: 667
Location: Pic-A-Nic Basket |
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Murdock[NJLP]
Rated PG-13
Joined: 15 Aug 2004
Posts: 49
Location: North Jersey
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| Posted: Fri, 23 Nov 2007 10:51:23 Post Subject: |
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I know....I don't know football...but I know math. I apply a little weight to the wins/losses, home/away, and recent performance. I also look at the scoring potential of the offense and the ability of the defense to prevent the scoring.
Basically...I use math....and then guess. 
| kimchiman wrote: | | That is exactly how the over/under works. The odds makers add 1/2 a point because they make money from people winning and losing bets, not from ties. 1/2 a point makes ties impossible. The other thing to consider is that some scores appear more often than others. Multiples of 7, +3 are most common. So better to pick a team to score 10 points than 11 points. The other thing to consider is the weather. Bad rain or snow will usually lower the total amount of scoring, as will a blowout where one team tries to run out the clock and rest it's best players. On the other hand, teams like New England try to run up the score. |
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MrMagnum
Rated PG
Joined: 24 Nov 2007
Posts: 7
Location: Illinois
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| Posted: Sat, 24 Nov 2007 23:43:19 Post Subject: |
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| Jynxx wrote: | I posted on my website (500+ members) and on a bunch of DJ forums I go to as well. We should get some more people because...
I'm kind of a big deal. People know me. |
i'm one of jynxx's peoples.
my picks are in...
prizes are wicked nice. good thing you've got going here. |
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Jynxx
Rated R
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Posts: 65
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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Doctor Feelgood
Arrrrghh!
Joined: 07 Apr 2003
Posts: 20349
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Sun, 25 Nov 2007 10:54:48 Post Subject: |
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| Jynxx wrote: | | No one even said anything about my Anchorman drop. Dr. F's avatar had me do it, I swear. |
I saw it and laughed. But it was during Thanksgiving and I was just on for a second, didn't have time to post, then forgot...  |
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Jynxx
Rated R
Joined: 16 Oct 2007
Posts: 65
Location: Milwaukee, WI
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slugbug
Rated XXX
Joined: 30 Oct 2006
Posts: 772
Location: Canada
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| Posted: Mon, 26 Nov 2007 00:19:41 Post Subject: |
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Wow, I went from 2nd place to 24th place in 1 day  |
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Little Bruin
Boo Boo
Joined: 07 Apr 2003
Posts: 667
Location: Pic-A-Nic Basket |
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DJ-Stone
Rated PG
Joined: 26 Nov 2007
Posts: 1
Location: usa
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kimchiman
Rated R
Joined: 02 Oct 2007
Posts: 60
Location: New Jersey
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| Posted: Mon, 26 Nov 2007 18:46:29 Post Subject: |
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I'm kicking myself for messing up one of my picks the first day. I rushed them and picked the wrong team when I should have been 3-0. Now the tough call. Do I pick miami knowing the #1 guy took Pitt and the sure thing? Or do I take the Steelers and hope to nail the score and get the extra 5 points. Either way I'm in a tough position.
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djhamsterstyle
Rated PG
Joined: 21 Nov 2007
Posts: 6
Location: Green Bay
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